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Survival and hazard semigroups

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14 Survival and hazard semigroups

Let \(A\) be a finite subgenerator: its off-diagonal entries are nonnegative and its column sums are nonpositive. These sign conditions alone allow nonabsorbing states; eventual absorption is a separate hypothesis. Let \(p_0\) be an initial transient-state distribution. Define

\[ p(t)=e^{tA}p_0, \qquad S(t)={\boldsymbol{1}}^Tp(t). \]

The exit-rate row vector is

\[ a^T=-{\boldsymbol{1}}^TA\ge0. \]

Theorem 14.1: Semigroup survival identities

For \(t\ge0\), the finite-time exit density and, wherever \(S(t)>0\), the hazard are

\[ \boxed{ f(t)=a^Te^{tA}p_0=-S'(t), \qquad h(t)=\frac{f(t)}{S(t)}. } \]

Consequently, \(S\) is nonincreasing and

\[ S(t)=\exp\left(-\int_0^th(r)\,dr\right) \]

whenever \(S(t)>0\). The density may be defective: its total mass is \(1-\lim_{t\to\infty}S(t)\). It is a probability density when absorption is eventual, so that this limit is zero.

Proof of Theorem 14.1

Differentiate:

\[ S'(t)={\boldsymbol{1}}^TAe^{tA}p_0=-a^Te^{tA}p_0. \]

The hazard identity is the definition of conditional instantaneous exit rate. Integrating \((\log S)'=-h\) gives the final formula.

Survival and instantaneous hazard produced by one transient transfer semigroup.
Survival and instantaneous hazard produced by one transient transfer semigroup.

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