Large Signal Model · Plate 10 of 17

Behavior can supply the coordinates

Future tests define a predictive state without naming hidden variables.

Question to keep in view. Can future tests themselves supply predictive coordinates?

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For a controlled process, arrange population probabilities into a behavior table: columns index past histories and rows index future tests. Its full column span is the linear predictive behavior space.

\[ \begin{array}{c|ccc} & h_1 & h_2 & \cdots\\\hline \tau_1 & p(h_1\tau_1)&p(h_2\tau_1)&\cdots\\ \tau_2 & p(h_1\tau_2)&p(h_2\tau_2)&\cdots\\ \vdots &\vdots&\vdots& \end{array} \]

Assume the full behavior space has rank at most \(r\). Choose an invertible \(r\)-by-\(r\) population core \(H\). Let \(G_s\) be the corresponding table with a declared action-observation symbol \(s\) inserted. With a compatible row/column convention,

\[ \boxed{B_s=G_sH^{-1}.} \]

The empty-test row supplies the mass functional and a covered history supplies the initial predictive state. The factorization then transports every future test through the observable coordinates.

The mathematical point

The dimension is determined by independent predictive behaviors. A global behavior-rank bound and an invertible core establish that the chosen coordinates cover the full behavior space.

Two distinct obstructions. An invertible sampled block does not establish the full-process rank bound. A fitted linear realization does not automatically preserve a probability domain. The next plates address the latter obligation.

Scope

The reconstruction uses population tables under the stated coverage hypotheses. No finite-sample rank test here authenticates those hypotheses or an unknown hidden-state model.

Formal route

BehaviorSpace.lean; BehaviorMinimality.lean;
ObservableCore.lean; ObservableRealization.lean.

Follow the proofs

Inspect the mapped Lean modules
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